Quick Takes: Live Blogging the Alabama Senate Election

I'm going to be live blogging the Alabama senate race results as they come in. Polls don't close for another two hours (7:00 pm central time), so I thought I'd give you a couple of things to chew on in the meantime.

First of all, here is a fascinating twitter thread from Al Giordano earlier today after he talked to a source in the Mobile County NAACP. Anyone who suggests that GOTV efforts in the African American community were lacking doesn't know what they're talking about. Here's how Al summed up:

12. These reports are also consistent with how the DNC spent money to win special elections in Virginia and other states. More money for field and GOTV. Less for TV ads. This is the @TomPerez era at work. End memo.

— Al Giordano (@AlGiordano) December 12, 2017

Exit polls have been released, but as always, should be taken with a grain of salt. However, here are some interesting tidbits:

CNN exit poll: electorate today 65% white, 30% black, 2% Latino

— Jonathan Hardison (@FOX6Hardison) December 12, 2017

Whoa. CNN Exit Poll numbers on Trump's favorability in heavily Republican, deep red, Alabama:

Approve: 48%Disapprove: 48%

In Ala-Frickin-Bama! #RollTide

— Al Giordano (@AlGiordano) December 12, 2017

The last statewide poll of Alabama shows Trump at +23% approval rating, but the EXIT polls show a tie in approval rating. This actually shows a very high Dem turnout.

— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) December 12, 2017

7:00 pm: As the polls close, David Jarman has an excellent county-by-county breakdown of what to look for as the results begin to come in.

You can check the results here and here.

7:25 pm: This could come in handy:

This is how Alabama voted in 2016.

Keep this handy when you're watching the map fill in tonight.#AlabamaSenateElection pic.twitter.com/S4qMiuowyq

— jordan yule log ⛄️ (@JordanUhl) December 13, 2017

7:45 pm: Results are trickling in. From what we've seen so far, it could be a long night.

From the early results, what little extrapolation we can do, the numbers are good for Jones having a shot. These numbers indicate a razor thin race, so it very well could be a long night coming down to the trickle of votes at the end.

— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) December 13, 2017

7:50 pm: I just HAD to drop this one in:

It's literally ONE PRECINCT so this is meaningless, but Etowah County (home of Gadsden Mall) is reporting 91-9 for Jones. #ALSen

— James Lambert (@hellofasandwich) December 13, 2017

8:24 pm: The predictors at the NYT have a pretty complicated model that I don't even begin to understnad. But here's what it looked like a few minutes ago.

8:30 pm: Here's the explanation for what the NYT model is predicting:

Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates–including two under 75% of our estimates.That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017

9:05 pm: Another note about turnout:

Amazing: turnout is at 72%-77% of '16 presidential race in heavily black counties, but just 55%-60% in rural white counties. Black voters punching above their weight tonight & giving Jones a chance. #ALSEN

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 13, 2017

9:25 pm: It's official, Jones takes the lead.

Doug Jones now leads by Roy Moore by 817 votes

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) December 13, 2017

9:30 pm: Fox News, Politico and AP have called the race for Doug Jones!!!!!!!

BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones wins election as U.S. senator from Alabama. @AP race call at 10:23 p.m. EST. #AlabamaElection #APracecall

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) December 13, 2017

9:38 pm: With this, I'm outta here.

A Democrat has taken Jefferson Beauregard Sessions' Senate seat.

Let that sink in, America.

— Michael Skolnik (@MichaelSkolnik) December 13, 2017

Source: Quick Takes: Live Blogging the Alabama Senate Election