Election 2016: Live results as stock futures plunge in wake of Trump victories over Clinton

Florida goes to Trump, per the AP and Fox. 

And Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate have all-but disappeared with North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and other key states in GOP hands tonight. Still outstanding though are races in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Nevada.   

Volatility futures are, uh, volatile.

Colorado goes to Clinton, say Fox and NBC. Nine electoral votes for her there. 

George Will points out how strange it would be that an incumbent with an approval rating over 50% can't lift his party to victory.

Two big calls: Ohio for Trump and Virginia for Clinton. Both are key battleground states and give each candidate new hope on what's shaping up to be a nail-biter of a night.  

More bad news for Democrats: GOP Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina has won re-election, defeating Deborah Ross. Burr's was one of the four key races to watch in the battle for Senate control. 

New Hampshire and Nevada are still to be called. Indiana went Republican earlier tonight with Todd Young besting Evan Bayh.       

Interesting discussion on Fox News about Clinton paths to victory. New Hampshire may end up being that key state, assuming she wins Pennsylvania and Trump gets Florida and Ohio. They're also raising possibility Clinton may win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.

Dow futures now down over 400 points. The market is not handling this well.

The dollar has jumped more than 5% against the Mexican peso as Republican Donald Trump pulls ahead in several key battleground states, including Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. One dollar bought 19.40 pesos /quotes/zigman/15936962/realtime/sampled USDMXN in recent trade, just shy of an all-time high of 19.90 reached in September.

In perhaps the biggest move across markets, the dollar has plunged against its Japanese rival. It was down 1.4% at 103.60 yen in recent trade. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.838%, while gold is up 0.7% at $1,283.

Dow futures are down 220 points at 18,050.

Clinton has won New York and Trump has notched wins in six more states, according to networks: Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas.  

MSCI has an interesting research note on the impact on the economy and markets if populist leaders come to power.

In such a scenario, equities would plunge 15.6%, while fixed income drops 4.6%, leaving a diversified multi-asset class portfolio with an 11.1% loss.

Investors appear to be laser-focused on Florida: Stock futures have turned negative as Trump pulls ahead in the key battleground state. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% at 2,133.

The Mexican peso slumped against the dollar as the U.S. presidential race tightened. The dollar was up 0.8%, buying 18.54 pesos in recent trade. That's a stunning turnaround; the buck hit a session low at 18.15 about an hour ago.

Republicans are keeping control of the House of Representatives, two networks say. That was expected — but if Clinton wins the presidency tonight, the chamber will serve as a major check on her agenda.

Republican Todd Young has been called the winner of the Senate race in Indiana, defeating Evan Bayh, who's a former two-term Democratic senator. This puts Democrats yet one more seat away from taking Senate control. 

Just yesterday, betting markets gave a 68% chance the Senate would flip back to Democrats' hands.  

The early votes for some of our 12 battleground counties show that so far Hillary Clinton is outperforming Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008 while Donald Trump is underperforming Mitt Romney and John McCain.

In Loudoun County, Virginia, Clinton leads 55%-39% with half the votes counted, putting her one to three points ahead of President Obama; Trump, however, trails McCain and Romney by six to eight percentage points. In Orange County, Florida, she's ahead by 60.3%-35.8%, with almost all the votes counted. Again she's two points ahead of Obama, while Trump is nearly five points behind 2008 and 2012. The pattern is similar in Wake County, N.C., where two-thirds of the vote is in.

So far in these key counties, Clinton appears to be adding to President Obama's victorious margins while Trump may be losing votes to Gary Johnson, who's pulling roughly 3% in all three key counties.

Stock futures and the dollar shoot higher, while gold and Treasury futures sink, as Clinton wins a spate of Eastern states. She's alsopulling ahead in key battlegrounds like Florida (though the race hasn't been called.)

Here's a roundup:S&P 500 futures: Up 0.7% at 2,150Peso: Up 0.7% at 18.23 to the dollarDollar: Up 0.4% at 105.30 yen10-year Treasury futures: Down 0.7%Gold: Off 0.1% at $1,272

A sarcastic tweet lamenting that Rubio is not on the presidential line.

Sen. Marco Rubio has won reelection in Florida. Rubio of course unsuccessfully fought for the Republican presidential nomination, and then got back into the Senate race after previously declaring he was not going to run.

Lots of calls at the top of the hour, with Clinton notching wins in six states and the District of Columbia. Networks called Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware for her. 

Trump won Oklahoma, Tennessee and Mississippi. 

All these states broke as expected. The real drama is still to come with the big battlegrounds as yet uncalled. 

One more call for Trump: South Carolina.  

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman cruised to an easy victory over his Democratic challenger Ted Strickland tonight, with the race being called minutes after polls closed. 

Portman is a former United States trade representative and headed the Office of Management and Budget under President George W. Bush. That's one less Republican that Democrats can hope to unseat tonight as they look to take the Senate majority.  

While the results have begun trickling in, it's probably going to be a much longer wait for big battleground states like Florida. Here's how the vote is shaping up there this evening. 

Just one call came out of the 7:30 p.m. poll closings: West Virginia for Trump.

Ohio and North Carolina — both battleground states — are too early to call, networks said.   

On Buzzfeed's live broadcast on Twitter, special guest Barack Obama gave a little message. "No matter what happens, the sun will rise in the east, and America will still be the greatest nation in the world," the president said.

U.S. stock futures and the Mexican peso have pared their gains now that polls have closed in some states and the first results are trickling in.

Here's a roundup of what's going on in markets:

S&P 500 futures: Up 0.9% at 2,137.50The peso: Up 1% at 18.40 to the dollar10-year Treasury futures: FlatGold futures: up 0.2% at $1,277WTI oil: off 0.4% at $44.82Dollar: up 0.2% at 104.76 yen

Probably the last person to reveal his vote was Sen. Toomey of Pennsylvania, in a tough re-election battle. He's voting for Trump.

Calls have been made in some of the first states of the evening, with Trump winning Indiana and Kentucky and Clinton taking Vermont, according to networks and the Associated Press.  

Khizr and Ghazala Khan, whose son was killed while serving in Iraq, were just on MSNBC.

"Our journey started that day [the convention,]" Ghazala Khan said. "We wanted to be with people who would take us forward, not take us back."

Added her husband, Khizr: "I want [Trump] to know this is not only his America, it belongs to all of us. We have the same dignity, the same rights, the same respect as all Americans."

MarketWatch editor Jeremy Olshan examined how Hillary Clinton's presidency was imagined 100 years ago. Men, in a 1920 article, are rendered powerless losers who spend their days eating ice cream.

Not exactly a surprise — the electorate doesn't like either.

We're starting to get some early exit polls, and here's one showing most voters made their minds up long ago. Just 7% said they decided who to vote for in the last few days. (Not shown in the following tweet, but reported in this CNN story: Majorities called the economy their most important issue, and were about evenly split over who would handle it better.)

Warren Buffett paid for a trolley to take voters to the polls. The Wall Street Journal has more.

U.S. stocks came off session highs but ended with gains Tuesday as Americans cast their votes in a historic presidential election. Although official results won't be seen for hours, Wall Street appears to be betting on a Hillary Clinton victory.  

The S&P 500 index /quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime SPX  rose 8.04 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 2,139.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/realtime DJIA  added 72.83 points, or 0.4%, to end at 18,332.43, while the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime COMP  advanced 27.32 points, or 0.5%, to 5,193.49.

Is Cindy McCain a secret member of Hillary Clinton's Pantsuit Nation?

The philanthropist and wife of the 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain was spotted at a polling station on Tuesday dressed in a striking white pantsuit, the outfit-of-choice for the pro-Hillary Clinton "Pantsuit Nation" Facebook group that currently has over 2.7 million members. (Senator McCain's press office and the couple's Washington, D.C.-based think tank did not respond to requests for comment.)

The Arizona Republican is seeking a sixth term in the Senate, and both he and his wife have already rescinded his support for Republican candidate Donald Trump.

I think Trump meant "county" here, and not country. But this tweet, and Nevada suit, show the candidate playing up doubts about the reliability of election results.

Here's a blast from the past that has relevance today.

Rex Nutting explains the pitfalls of leaning on early exit polls, which should be released soon. Many Democrats got their hopes up in 2004 when early exit polls showed John Kerry doing much better than expected in many swing states.

Kerry, at last check, was preparing to go to Antarctica.

John Chambers — the Cisco chairman who is one of Silicon Valley's most prominent Republicans — told a gathering in Lisbon that he's supporting Hillary Clinton. Chambers said it's the first time in his lifetime he's voted Democrat.

"I'm doing it because I think that [Clinton], better than anyone else that's running for president, [has a digital strategy]. The U.S. is the only country in the world that does not have a digitization plan," Chambers said, according to Venture Beat.

If you're looking for ways to play a Hillary Clinton presidency, check out this column by Jeff Reeves, who writes about what he calls "the perfect Hillary portfolio for 2017." Among the 7 investment picks Reeves identifies are midcap industrial Aecom /quotes/zigman/457273/delayed /quotes/zigman/457273/lastsale ACM , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries /quotes/zigman/10294855/delayed /quotes/zigman/10294855/lastsale TEVA  and Tyson Foods /quotes/zigman/244186/delayed /quotes/zigman/244186/lastsale TSN . 

And for a Trump portfolio, writes Phil Van Doorn, look at recommendations including the SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/zigman/41663/delayed /quotes/zigman/41663/lastsale GLD , Barrick Gold /quotes/zigman/12772/delayed /quotes/zigman/12772/lastsale ABX  and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF /quotes/zigman/1490180/delayed /quotes/zigman/1490180/lastsale VWO .  

Pooches at the polls. Many cute photos are in the Twittersphere.

From the Nevada court challenge, which the Trump team lost.

MarketWatch's Jeff Bartash took a look at four races that will decide control of the Senate, including in New Hampshire and Indiana. Here's incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who's facing a tough challenge from Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, on Tuesday. 

President Barack Obama taped six radio interviews Tuesday to air in the key battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, the White House announced. Half of the interviews are in the Philadelphia market, showing the Clinton campaign is still trying to drive up turnout in the Democratic stronghold.

The Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit against the voter registrar in Clark County, Nev., MSNBC is reporting.

The campaign has reportedly argued that people were allowed to vote who had not joined the early-voter line at a polling place at the time it was scheduled to close, apparently on Friday. Pete Williams of NBC said the location of the polling place was in a largely Hispanic area.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton received an overwhelming majority of the vote in Guam, a U.S. territory in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Clinton received 71.63% of the vote, compared with 24.16% for her Republican rival, Donald Trump, according to Pacific Daily News.

Guam may be tiny — it has a population of about 170,000 residents, according to the World Bank — but it has sided with the victor in every U.S. presidential election since 1980.

Treasury yields seem to be getting a bump from the Votecastr tracker.

Votecastr mashes early voting, voters' candidate preferences as derived from pre-election polls and microtargeting models, and voter turnout into predictions for election results. It's currently showing Clinton leads in five of seven swing states (Pennsylvania being the exception.) You can view it at this link on Slate. 

The U.S. dollar has fallen to September lows against the Mexican peso. The peso, in currency markets, is seen as the ultimate play on the election, given that Donald Trump wants a wall on the Mexican border if he becomes president.

Here's a video looking at whether markets can be timed around elections.

File this under, "trust but verify."

Trump was subjected to some boos as he arrived to vote in New York on Tuesday morning. Here are a couple videos from the scene.

Visits to the Susan B. Anthony grave are picking up, in advance of the election of what could be the nation's first female president.

Another somber take, from Steve Ricchuito, chief economist at Mizuho Americas.

The mud-slinging and character assassinations employed by both sides reflect the fact that neither candidate has a new vision for how to correct the economic problems that confront working class families. Rather than question the liberal and/or conservative orthodox solutions which have repeatedly failed to correct the problem of rising income inequality since the 1960s, it is easier to attack your competitor on moral or ethical grounds to hide the fact neither side has a new or profound solution to the problem. In fact, I am not even sure that either party truly understands the deep economic transition that has gripped the domestic and global economy. Specifically, the transition from a world of excess demand immediately following World War II to the current world of excess supply, which began to surface in the early 1990s.

Google searches — which some say have predictive power — have turned more in Clinton's favor of late.

David Rosenberg, the chief economist and market strategist at Gluskin Sheff, isn't particularly cheery in his morning note.

I fail to see how this era of "politics of rage" is conducive to sustainable investor risk appetite. The divide is wide and it cannot be disputed that even if Hillary Clinton is the next president, Trump will likely still take more than 55 million votes and go back to the primaries and you will see that Bernie Sanders attracted an incredible 13 million supporters.

He says the upside for the market is "extremely limited."

In response to a reader question — we like them! — Dixville Notch, the tiny community in New Hampshire, went for Clinton by a 4-2 margin. Gary Johnson got a vote, and Mitt Romney got a write-in vote, too.

Here's when every state's polls close on Election Day.

It seems a little late for the sell side to be publishing election calls, but Keefe, Bruyette & Woods has one. They're expecting a pretty close race — a 274-to-264 margin for Clinton, and a 50-50 Senate which would mean that the vice president (Tim Kaine in this scenario) gets the tie-breaking vote. They also say that we may not know the result when U.S. markets open on Wednesday.

MarketWatch's Bill Watts examined the scenario where the winner of the election is in doubt and what it would mean for stocks.

Good morning. MarketWatch will be providing around-the-clock coverage of the election and its impact on markets and your money.

The action is looking less frenetic, following the huge jump on Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/realtime DJIA surged 371 points in response to the news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation said its review of a new batch of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's emails didn't change its conclusions.

It may be worth checking out how the market performs on, and after, Election Day.

Source: Election 2016: Live results as stock futures plunge in wake of Trump victories over Clinton